⚡ Flash Deal Pack Safety Analysis

D2C Demand Plan v9.0f × Replen v26 × Live Shopify Inventory — May 28, 2026 17:13 UTC
Methodology: Cross-references the v26 replen waterfall (week-by-week EOP projections through EOY 2026) with live Shopify inventory by warehouse (Fontana & Kentucky). A style-color is "Flash Safe" when: (1) all core sizes (S/M/L/XL for tops) maintain positive EOP through Dec 2026, (2) at least one warehouse has ≥50 units/size across all core sizes, and (3) pack components can ship from the same warehouse. Both replen SCs and non-replen SCs are included.
41
Flash Safe SCs
55
Core Sizes +EOP thru EOY
14
Near-Safe (low WH stock)
223
Total SCs Analyzed

📦 Recommended Pack Combinations

📦 Short Sleeve Crew 3-Pack Fontana 1,447 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4000NAVY NOOS Short Sleeve Crew 2,129 2,833
TCT4000TAN499 Short Sleeve Crew 2,027 388
TCT4000BLACK NOOS Short Sleeve Crew 1,447 341

📦 Short Sleeve Polo 3-Pack Fontana 323 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4002HGRY Short Sleeve Polo 701 729
TCT4002BLACK NOOS Short Sleeve Polo 610 613
TCT4002CARBON Short Sleeve Polo 323 370

📦 Short Sleeve V-Neck 3-Pack Kentucky 484 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4100CARBON Short Sleeve V-Neck 910 880
TCT4100HGRY Short Sleeve V-Neck 632 641
TCT4100NAVY Short Sleeve V-Neck 484 961

📦 Long Sleeve Crew Neck 3-Pack Fontana 461 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4509NAVY LS Crew Neck Tee 497 230
TCT4509HNAVY LS Crew Neck Tee 464 163
TCT4509CHGY LS Crew Neck Tee 461 156

📦 Variety Pack — Best of Basics Fontana 497 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4000NAVY NOOS Short Sleeve Crew 2,129 2,833
TCT4002HGRY Short Sleeve Polo 701 729
TCT4509NAVY LS Crew Neck Tee 497 230

📦 Full-Zip + LS Variety Pack Fontana 223 unit headroom

Style-ColorStyleMin EOP (EOY)WH Stock/Size
TCT4607BLACK Full-Zip Hoodie 301 391
TCT4200BLACK LS Crew Neck Tee 223 1,780
TCT4228HGRY Long Sleeve Shirt 151 234

✅ All Flash-Safe Style-Colors (41)

Flash Safe — positive EOP + warehouse eligible
Near-Safe — positive EOP but low warehouse stock
At Risk — core size stocks out before EOY
Style-Color Style Name Dept Tier NOOS Min Core EOP
(thru EOY)		 Best WH Fontana
Min/Size		 Kentucky
Min/Size		 Replen PO PO Arrival
TCT4000NAVY Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 2,129 Fontana 2,833 9,038 35,068 2026-09-14
TCT4000TAN499 Short Sleeve Crew Tees T1 2,027 Fontana 388 489 - -
TCT4000BLACK Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 1,447 Fontana 341 8,791 315,598 2026-09-14
TCT4000HNAVY Short Sleeve Crew Tees T1 1,007 Fontana 1,802 0 - -
TCT4100CARBON Short Sleeve V-Neck Tees T1 910 Kentucky 0 880 - -
TCT4000WHITE Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 909 Kentucky 0 14,926 210,000 2026-09-14
TCT4002HGRY Short Sleeve Polo Polos & Henleys T1 701 Fontana 729 111 - -
TCT4100HGRY Short Sleeve V-Neck Tees T1 632 Kentucky 0 641 - -
TCT4002BLACK Short Sleeve Polo Polos & Henleys untiered ✅ 610 Fontana 613 637 2,684 2026-09-28
TCT4509NAVY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Active Tees T2 497 Fontana 230 265 1,019 2026-09-28
TCT4100NAVY Short Sleeve V-Neck Tees T1 484 Kentucky 41 961 - -
TCT4509HNAVY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Active Tees T3 464 Fontana 163 207 288 2026-09-28
TCT4509CHGY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Active Tees T3 461 Fontana 156 208 63 2026-09-28
TCT4000HGRY Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 401 Fontana 2,360 4,164 32,126 2026-09-14
TCT4000CHGY Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 401 Fontana 1,964 0 3,000 2026-09-14
TCT4000CARBON Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 391 Fontana 2,497 6,303 79,580 2026-09-14
TCT4228DHNAVY Long Sleeve Shirt Shirts T2 328 Kentucky 0 158 - -
TCT4002CARBON Short Sleeve Polo Polos & Henleys T1 323 Fontana 370 1,328 148 2026-09-28
TCT4607BLACK Full-Zip Hoodie Hoodies & Sweatshirts T1 301 Fontana 391 0 1,149 2026-09-14
TCT4104NAVY Long Sleeve V-Neck Sweater Sweaters & Knits T3 273 Fontana 172 180 - -
TCT4000MGRN Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 245 Fontana 3,917 0 42,010 2026-09-14
TCT4701BLACKW Slim Fit Jeans Denim T1 242 Fontana 238 68 1,150 2026-12-07
TCT4030NAVY Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 227 Fontana 143 324 - -
TCT4200BLACK Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Tees T1 223 Fontana 1,780 0 31,709 2026-09-14
TCT4228HGRY Long Sleeve Shirt Shirts T2 151 Fontana 234 0 - -
TCT4304HNAVY Tank / Sleeveless Active Tees T3 150 Fontana 156 0 - -
TCT4205NAVY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Tees T2 137 Fontana 288 0 - -
TCT4030WHITE Short Sleeve Crew Tees untiered ✅ 132 Fontana 341 0 4,916 2026-09-14
TCT4203HGRY Long Sleeve Henley Polos & Henleys T1 130 Fontana 273 0 - -
TCT4003BLACK Short Sleeve Crew Active Tees untiered ✅ 97 Fontana 294 0 5,969 2026-09-14
TCT4503MGRN Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Tees T2 85 Kentucky 0 264 640 2026-09-14
TCT4008MGRN Short Sleeve Crew Active Polos & Henleys T3 75 Fontana 81 7 - -
TCT4030CARBON Short Sleeve Crew Tees T1 74 Kentucky 0 314 11,176 2026-09-14
TCT4100BLACK Short Sleeve V-Neck Tees untiered ✅ 70 Fontana 1,272 889 1,699 2026-09-14
TCT4103BLACK Short Sleeve V-Neck Active Tees T2 63 Fontana 414 0 577 2026-09-14
TCT4100WHITE Short Sleeve V-Neck Tees untiered ✅ 51 Fontana 62 840 4,340 2026-09-14
TCT4503HGRY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Tees T3 35 Fontana 51 0 668 2026-09-14
TCT4103NAVY Short Sleeve V-Neck Active Tees T2 22 Fontana 172 160 1,436 2026-09-14
TCT4203CARBON Long Sleeve Henley Polos & Henleys T1 17 Fontana 456 0 - -
TCT4213BLACK Pullover Hoodie Hoodies & Sweatshirts T1 11 Fontana 86 0 - -
TCT4503NAVY Long Sleeve Crew Neck Tee Tees T2 9 Fontana 100 0 559 2026-09-14

⚠️ Near-Safe SCs (positive EOP but low warehouse stock)

These SCs won't stock out through EOY, but don't have enough per-size stock at a single warehouse for flash deals. A warehouse transfer could unlock them.

Style-Color Style Name Dept Min Core EOP Fontana Min/Size Kentucky Min/Size Action Needed
TCT4002HMGRN Short Sleeve Polo Polos & Henleys 615 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4511MGRN Short Sleeve Polo Active Polos & Henleys 133 48 32 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4208BLACK Long Sleeve Henley Polos & Henleys 49 17 0 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4026HGRY Short Sleeve Shirt Shirts 46 44 3 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4511WHITE Short Sleeve Polo Active Polos & Henleys 37 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4026BLACK Short Sleeve Shirt Shirts 20 31 0 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4511NAVY Short Sleeve Polo Active Polos & Henleys 18 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4208NAVY Long Sleeve Henley Polos & Henleys 16 9 0 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4701MGRAYW Slim Fit Jeans Denim 10 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4701INDIGOW Slim Fit Jeans Denim 8 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4701GRAYW Slim Fit Jeans Denim 5 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4505CARBON Long Sleeve Polo Polos & Henleys 1 40 11 Transfer/consolidate inventory to single WH
TCT4701MINDIGW Slim Fit Jeans Denim 1 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)
TCT4706GRAYW Straight Fit Jeans Denim 1 0 0 Not yet at warehouses (in transit?)

📋 Methodology

Data Sources:
• Demand Plan: v9.0f (Google Sheet Demand_Forecast_GS) — SC-level monthly + SKU-level weekly forecasts
• Replen Plan: D2C_Replenishment_v26_20260522.xlsx — 1,706 SC-size rows with BUY/DEFER decisions
• Waterfall Projections: Week-by-week BOP→IN→REPLEN→DEM→MET→EOP→UNMET (May 2026 – May 2027)
• Live Inventory: Shopify Admin API, 17,033 inventory items across Fontana (ShipBob) & Kentucky (Stord)

Flash Deal Safety Criteria:
1. All core sizes (S/M/L/XL for tops; core waist sizes for bottoms) maintain positive EOP through 2026-12-28
2. At least one warehouse (Fontana or Kentucky) has ≥50 units per core size
3. All pack components can ship from the SAME warehouse
4. Both replen SCs (with incoming POs) and non-replen SCs evaluated

"Min Core EOP" = the lowest end-of-period inventory any core size hits at any week through EOY. Higher = more headroom for flash deal incremental demand without stockout risk.
Generated by Viktor · 2026-05-28 17:13 UTC